Universal Basic Income (UBI) is coming at the on-set of robotics and Automation

Advantages:
  • Liberty. On the most basic level, everyone who works does so out of economic coercion. You have to feed, clothe, and house yourself; those things cost money, so you have to work for money.

    This limits liberty, but is not inherently evil - humans have had to forage and "work" to provide for themselves since the dawn of time, like any other animal. The problem happens when we introduce inequality - the rich gain power over the poor, which can be abused. The Universal Basic Income (UBI) counteracts that by providing a reasonable alternative to being coerced into unpleasant work.

    The nice side effect is that, this also increases employees' bargaining power without depending on an inefficient, easily corruptible system like unionization.
  • Welfare. The UBI aims to increase the welfare of the poor, but also allows the poor more freedom by disbursing their benefits as money instead of in-kind transfers. Most will spend it on small luxuries and consumer goods.
  • More Education. In the working classes, we will see more young pursuing educational opportunities. In the middle class, young people will take more time to explore the world and enrich their lives before heading off to college or the workplace. Generally, people will stay in school longer, because the costs of doing so will be less.
  • Birth Rates. Providing security for potential parents should encourage them to have more children, and younger, by reducing the economic penalties for doing so. The flip side to this is that we may see higher rates of single parenthood, the burden of which will mainly fall on women.
  • Equal Pay. The UBI won't fix things completely, but it will take women and minorities a long way towards achieving equal pay to white men.
  • Entrepreneurship. The UBI will greatly encourage entrepreneurship. It's well-known among economists that native-born Americans are more risk-averse than immigrants - perhaps because we grow up so comfortably here that the conditions many immigrants start out in are unacceptably poor. The economy will benefit from more entrepreneurship.
Neutral Considerations:
  • Benefit Levels. How do we apportion out the UBI? This will be a big debate. One national rate? Do you adjust for region, age, gender, race, or number of dependents? A national rate promotes universal equality, but is it truly equal, given past inequalities?
  • Distribution of Labor. There is only so much productivity to gain from any given occupation. A UBI may redistribute workers away from some sectors that are more financially lucrative than their social utility justifies - like finance and law - but by the same token, many workers will flow into sectors that are also economically non-vital. For instance, we will end up with a lot more artists and poets. Now, I don't have anything against those groups, but economically, the work they do only uses up physical resources and spits out human happiness - not human full stomachs, not human houses, just happiness.
    The biggest danger is that we could see a period of bad inflation due to skyrocketing manufacturing wages. An exodus of manufacturing labor would immediately cripple supply, but the expected influx to the STEM (science, tech, engineering, math) labor pool would take years to train up before the productivity gains from improved manufacturing R&D could drive prices back down. Over the long term, labor market prices will likely adjust to mitigate the worst consequences of "mis-redistribution", but if we can control inflation, the UBI labor redistribution effect won't have a great enough magnitude to significantly increase productivity by resolving existing workforce imbalances.
  • UBI as a Milestone. Think back to your senior year of high school. Wasn't it scary, wondering what the future would hold for you, hoping you wouldn't fuck it up and end up poor? Imagine being a high-schooler waiting to get your UBI on your 18th birthday. Lot more fun, eh? I don't know how this one will go. Maybe some kids will drop out as soon as they're 18. Maybe younger would-be drop-outs will stay in school longer because they don't have to provide for their poverty-stricken families. Probably a little bit of both.
Disadvantages:
  • The Moochers. The basic rate of structural unemployment (labor "churn") will be higher, because there will be some number of people who decide to be lazy and just live off their UBI. This number will be much smaller than what most Republicans think, but not zero.

    So what happens to the Moochers? Do we protect them from the inevitable discrimination? What happens when a Moocher wastes their UBI on drugs - hey, they got their shot, and they fucked it up - so do we let them die from starvation? We have to weigh the risks of turning the Moochers into a second class against protecting their civil liberties.
  • Susceptibility to Inflation. The UBI will be presumably pegged to some poverty line, which is ultimately itself pegged to inflation. Sounds reasonable, right?
  • Atlas Shrugged Syndrome. It's going to take some time for the rich to get used to having less power. In the meantime, many will protest, and some will leave the country. We'd better hope that education improvements outstrip the short-term brain drain in the long run.

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